By: with wires
Published: Friday, 7 Aug 2009 | 8:35 AM ET

U.S. employers cut 247,000 jobs in July, far less than expected and the least in any month since last August, according to a government report on Friday that provided the clearest evidence yet that the economy was turning around.

With fewer workers being laid off, the unemployment rate eased to 9.4 percent in July from 9.5 percent the prior month, the Labor Department said, the first time the jobless rate had fallen since April 2008.

The government revised job losses for May and June to show 43,000 fewer jobs lost than previously reported.

Analysts had expected non-farm payrolls to drop 320,000 in July and the unemployment rate to rise to 9.6 percent. The forecast was made earlier this week before other jobs data prompted some economists to lower their estimates for job losses.

Economists saw the data as encouraging.

"The economy is at the turning point from the recession as the labor market is starting to heal." said Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi economist Chris Rupkey. "If the job losses have halted, and this is a good first step in that direction, consumer spending could lift faster than the market is expecting. At the very least, today's report is additional evidence that the recession ended in the second quarter and the odds of a 3% real GDP recovery in the second half of 2009 are growing. Today is welcome news as it is likely to chase the doomsayers out of the market."

Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the economy has shed 6.7 million jobs, the department said.

Job losses in July were spread across all sectors in July, but the pace of firings slowed markedly from previous months. Overall, the loss was the smallest since August 2008, a month before the collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered swift, widespread and deep job cutting.

Manufacturing employment fell by 52,000 — the first time since September losses were less than 100,000 — after shrinking by 131,000 in June. This was probably due to the reopening of General Motors and Chrysler assembly plants after bankruptcy closures.

Payrolls in construction industries slipped 76,000 after falling 86,000, likely reflecting spending on infrastructure projects from the government's $787 billion stimulus package and a modest pickup in ground breaking for new homes.

In the service-providing sector, 119,000 workers were laid off, and the goods-producing industries purged 128,000 positions.

Education and health services continued to add jobs, with payrolls increasing 17,000 in July after rising 37,000 in June.

Government employment increased 7,000 after slipping 48,000 in June.

Economists were particularly pleased to see that the overall improvement came with little job creation from the government.

At the same time, many economists say the government's massive $789-billion stimulus package is having a demonstrable impact on the economy, creating 200,000 to 250,000 jobs a month.

The positive surprise in July data was accompanied by ones for previous months as well. June payroll losses were revised lower from 467,000 to 443,000, while May's fell from 322,000 to 303,000.

Friday's jobs data and other recent economic reports--from housing to autos--prompted some of the more optimistic economists to repeat the claim that the recession may very well be over.

"The jobs turnaround is actually about as rapid as you could hope to see," said Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics. "The transition from job losses to gains could come as soon as August. Remember historically once you have seen one month’s job increase you are already in recovery."

Copyright 2009 Reuters. Click for restrictions. .........................

"A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. He does not treat men as masters or slaves, but as independent equals. He deals with men by means of a free, voluntary, unforced, uncoerced exchange—an exchange which benefits both parties by their own independent judgment. A trader does not expect to be paid for his defaults, only for his achievements. He does not switch to others the burden of his failures, and he does not mortgage his life into bondage to the failures of others." - Ayn Rand

US Employment Situation 2009
no. 9 of 12

Reporting Period: August 2009
Announcement Date: 4 September 2009
Announcement Time: 08:30 ET

Concensus Analyst Estimates/Actual Prior Reading (current | previous):

Non-Farm Payrolls: -225,000 | -247,000
Unemployment Rate: 9.5% | 9.4%
Manufacturing Payrolls: -60,000 | -52,000
Hourly Earnings: +0.1% | +0.2%
Avg. Weekly Work Hours: 33.1 | 33.1

Other Information:

Yearly Avg. NFP: +115,000 (2008)
3-mo. Avg. NFP : -353,000 (May, June, July) .........................

"A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. He does not treat men as masters or slaves, but as independent equals. He deals with men by means of a free, voluntary, unforced, uncoerced exchange—an exchange which benefits both parties by their own independent judgment. A trader does not expect to be paid for his defaults, only for his achievements. He does not switch to others the burden of his failures, and he does not mortgage his life into bondage to the failures of others." - Ayn Rand

Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist for

For currency traders, the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release is an event that typically promises high volatility and can even signal the beginning for a new trend when the dollar is listless. Considering the volatile mix of current market conditions, the intensified focus on the pace of economic recovery and the congestion patterns the majors have been relegated to for the past three months; the stars seem to be aligning for this single event to catalyze a new phase for the currency.

However, the impact and reaction may not be so straightforward. Thin liquidity has contributed to the market’s inability to develop a trend; and the long US holiday weekend coming up will further dampen activity. Then again, shallow markets further exacerbate price swings and could more readily produce the long-awaited breakout. Let’s look into the factors that will determine whether the labor data can usher in a new trend or simply be ignored as the weekend nears.

Taking Measure of Forecasts

Regardless of the exogenous, market dynamics surrounding the economic release; the data could fall flat if the data is in line with what market participants are pricing in and economists are forecasting. It is difficult to gauge the consensus from speculators as they use their predictions to position themselves. Therefore, price action in the lead up to the event is the most accurate barometer for sentiment. However, traders also base their projections on the official consensus. That is far easier to benchmark.

According to Bloomberg’s poll, the US economy likely lost a net 230,000 jobs through August. This would be the smallest contraction in a year; but not a significant improvement in pace from July. Decidedly less bullish is the expected uptick in the unemployment rate. The market was dealt a shock last month when Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an unexpected improvement in the jobless rate from its 26-year high 9.5 percent to 9.4 percent. This also happened to be the first improvement in this series since April of 2008. As one of the most lagging indicators for economic activity, this indicator clearly held significant meaning. Looking at the breakdown of analyst expectations, the forecast spread is relatively narrow (with a high of -100K and low of -365K) and evenly spread for those above and below the consensus. The rate on the other hand shows significant divergence. Altogether, the net change can easily induce surprise by a significant deviation and the percentage of unemployed can have a meaningful impact in all three scenarios (better, worse or in line with expectations).


What the Data Says

We are not heading into this event blind. Far from it. The popularity of this economic report has encouraged a number of secondary and ancillary labor statistics into the foreground. Over the past week, the data has been broadly positive.

Arguments for an Improvement in Non-Farm Payrolls

1. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence survey labor differential improves from -44.8 to -40.9. Those seeing jobs becoming more plentiful in the coming six months rose from 15.5 percent to 18.4 percent.
2. The ISM Manufacturing employment gauge rose to a one year high of 46.4 from 45.6.
3. The ISM Non-Manufacturing (service sector) employment gauge rose to an 11-month high of 43.5 from 41.5.
4. ADP Private Payrolls contract by 298,000 – the smallest in 11 months.
5. Challenger Job Cuts drop 13.8 percent – the most in 11 months.

Arguments for a Deterioration in Non-Farm Payrolls

1. Initial Jobless Claims through August 29th shrank less than expected to 570,000. The four-week average continues to rise from its yearly low.
2. Though Continuing Jobless Claims rose in the week through August 22nd, the four-week average fell to its lowest level since April 4th.



The Fundamental Impact

Looking beyond the surprise quotient and market reaction, there is much more to take away from the August employment data. Consumer spending is the largest source of growth for the world’s largest economy and it is also a relatively objective measure. Consequently, these statistics offer the most reliable timely barometer for economic activity.  Putting this month’s data into context, we have seen a steady improvement in the pace of job losses for the past six months; yet the unemployment rate has not confirmed a top. This proffers the same general sentiment that the broader outlook for growth has been saddled with: early signs of a recovery.

While risk trends continue to hold their dominance over volatility and trend in the markets, the potential for growth and returns is a prominent theme that is growing in influence. This is particularly true for currencies. Since a currency’s value is found largely through the strength of the economy that backs it as well as the benchmark yield; the recovery in the US (along with the shift in its monetary policy) is pitted against that of its industrialized peers. With the Euro Zone’s two largest economies already posting positive growth through the second quarter, the burden is on the US to catch up.


The Real Reaction

Fundamental context is certainly important when absorbing one of the most market moving indicators into your analysis; but as we have discussed, that does not necessarily translate into meaningful price action. There are two immediate concerns for gauging the market’s initial response to this event risk – surprise and background conditions. If the actual numbers do not deviate from what the market at large was already pricing in, then the dollar will already be fairly valued. On the other hand, a break from the consensus (depending on its severity) could leverage thin liquidity for an extraordinarily volatile response. At the same time, a lack of market depth could either lead to a fast moving trend or it may even snuff a rally out. Looking ahead to the long holiday weekend, without a considerable surprise from this data; it is more likely that range boundaries will hold and the dollar will have to have to wait for a new trend until a later date. Then again, the more fundamental pressure that builds behind the market, the more likely it is that a speculative breakout could support itself in a new trend.

.........................

"A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. He does not treat men as masters or slaves, but as independent equals. He deals with men by means of a free, voluntary, unforced, uncoerced exchange—an exchange which benefits both parties by their own independent judgment. A trader does not expect to be paid for his defaults, only for his achievements. He does not switch to others the burden of his failures, and he does not mortgage his life into bondage to the failures of others." - Ayn Rand

On Friday September 4, 2009, 8:40 am EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employers cut a fewer-than-expected 216,000 jobs in August, while the unemployment rate rose to a 26-year high, the government said on Friday in a report showing a still fragile labor market.

The Labor Department said the unemployment rate rose to 9.7 percent after dipping to 9.4 percent in July and the decline in payrolls was the smallest in a year. The department revised job losses for June and July to show 49,000 more jobs lost than previously reported.

Analysts had expected non-farm payrolls to drop 225,000 in August and the unemployment rate to rise to 9.5 percent.

The labor force increased by 73,000 in August, indicating the return of some jobless workers who had given up looking for work accounting for part of the rise in the unemployment rate.

Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the economy has shed 6.9 million jobs, the department said. Stubbornly high unemployment is wearing on consumer confidence and crimping domestic demand, pointing to an anemic recovery from the worst slump in 70 years. Consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.

However, the August report confirmed the pace of layoffs was easing from early this year, when nearly three quarters of a million jobs were lost in January.

Manufacturing employment fell by 63,000, with a total of 2 million factory jobs lost since the start of the recession. Payrolls in construction industries dropped 65,000 after falling 73,000 in July.

The service-providing sector purged 80,000 workers in August, while the goods-producing industries shed 136,000 positions.

Education and health services continued to add jobs, with payrolls increasing 52,000 in August after rising 21,000 in July. Government employment fell 18,000 after slipping 28,000 in July.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Neil Stempleman) .........................

"A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. He does not treat men as masters or slaves, but as independent equals. He deals with men by means of a free, voluntary, unforced, uncoerced exchange—an exchange which benefits both parties by their own independent judgment. A trader does not expect to be paid for his defaults, only for his achievements. He does not switch to others the burden of his failures, and he does not mortgage his life into bondage to the failures of others." - Ayn Rand

US Employment Situation 2009
no. 10 of 12

Reporting Period: September 2009
Announcement Date: 2 October 2009
Announcement Time: 08:30 ET

Concensus Analyst Estimates/Actual Prior Reading (current | previous):

Non-Farm Payrolls: -175,000 | -216,000
Unemployment Rate: 9.8% | 9.7%
Manufacturing Payrolls: -60,000 | -52,000
Hourly Earnings: +0.1% | +0.2%
Avg. Weekly Work Hours: 33.1 | 33.1

Other Information:

Yearly Avg. NFP: +115,000 (2008)
3-mo. Avg. NFP : -346,000 (June, July, August) .........................

"A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. He does not treat men as masters or slaves, but as independent equals. He deals with men by means of a free, voluntary, unforced, uncoerced exchange—an exchange which benefits both parties by their own independent judgment. A trader does not expect to be paid for his defaults, only for his achievements. He does not switch to others the burden of his failures, and he does not mortgage his life into bondage to the failures of others." - Ayn Rand

Friday October 2, 2009, 8:32 am EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employers cut a deeper-than-expected 263,000 jobs in September, lifting the unemployment rate to 9.8 percent, according to a government report on Friday that fueled fears the weak labor market could undermine economic recovery.

The Labor Department said the unemployment rate was the highest since June 1983 and payrolls had now dropped for 21 consecutive months.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected non-farm payrolls to drop 180,000 in September and the unemployment rate to rise to 9.8 percent from 9.7 percent the prior month. The poll was conducted before reports, including regional manufacturing surveys, showed some deterioration in employment measures.

The government revised job losses for July and August to show 13,000 more jobs lost than previously reported. Preliminary annual benchmark revisions, released together with September's employment report showed that total non-farm payroll employment for March would have to be revised down about 824,000.

Stubbornly high unemployment is viewed as the missing link in the economy's recovery from its worst recession in 70 years. The economy is believed to have started growing in the third quarter.

Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed people has risen by 7.6 million to 15.1 million, the department said. While the decline in payrolls has moderated from early this year, companies are still not hiring on a wide scale, likely waiting for a signal that the economic recovery is sustainable.

Manufacturing employment fell by 51,000 in September, while construction industries payrolls dropped. The service-providing sector cut 147,000 workers in September, while goods-producing industries shed 116,000 positions.

Education and health services added a mere 3,000 jobs, while government employment fell 53,000. .........................

"A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. He does not treat men as masters or slaves, but as independent equals. He deals with men by means of a free, voluntary, unforced, uncoerced exchange—an exchange which benefits both parties by their own independent judgment. A trader does not expect to be paid for his defaults, only for his achievements. He does not switch to others the burden of his failures, and he does not mortgage his life into bondage to the failures of others." - Ayn Rand

Yesterday's Non-Farm Payrolls report was indeed a very odd one; for weeks it seems that the currency markets downplayed the prevalence of positive U.S. economic data and continued to favor the U.S. dollar on a recovery bid.  Yet, when the 8:30am announcement showed up with weaker-than-expected payrolls--losing 263,000 jobs in September versus an expectation of -175,000--the currency markets abandoned their U.S. dollar buying and favored just about everything else.

Into the announcement, the euro traded to 1.4480 and the pound into 1.5810, but afterwards both skyrocketed to 1.4642 and 1.5953 respectively.  Yet, to complicate matters even more, the USD/JPY and the EUR/JPY both traded up on the news as well.

.........................

"A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. He does not treat men as masters or slaves, but as independent equals. He deals with men by means of a free, voluntary, unforced, uncoerced exchange—an exchange which benefits both parties by their own independent judgment. A trader does not expect to be paid for his defaults, only for his achievements. He does not switch to others the burden of his failures, and he does not mortgage his life into bondage to the failures of others." - Ayn Rand

US Employment Situation 2009
no. 11 of 12

Reporting Period: October 2009
Announcement Date: 6 November 2009
Announcement Time: 08:30 ET

Concensus Analyst Estimates/Actual Prior Reading (current | previous):

Non-Farm Payrolls: -175,000 | -263,000
Unemployment Rate: 9.9% | 9.8%
Manufacturing Payrolls: -60,000 | -52,000
Hourly Earnings: +0.1% | +0.2%
Avg. Weekly Work Hours: 33.1 | 33.1

Other Information:

Yearly Avg. NFP: +115,000 (2008)
3-mo. Avg. NFP : -346,000 (June, July, August) .........................

"A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. He does not treat men as masters or slaves, but as independent equals. He deals with men by means of a free, voluntary, unforced, uncoerced exchange—an exchange which benefits both parties by their own independent judgment. A trader does not expect to be paid for his defaults, only for his achievements. He does not switch to others the burden of his failures, and he does not mortgage his life into bondage to the failures of others." - Ayn Rand

By: Patti Domm Executive Editor for
Published: Thursday, 5 Nov 2009 | 9:08 PM ET

Unemployment could crack 10 percent, but job losses should start to show signs of bottoming.

Markets have been hanging on the October employment report, expected to show a drop of 175,000 nonfarm payrolls when it is released at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

"Our number is -140,000, which is a little stronger than consensus," said J.P. Morgan economist Bob Mellman. Mellman said he expects to see an unemployment rate of 10 percent, a bit higher than the street's expectation of  9.9 percent.

"We have a peak of unemployment at 10.2 percent. I don't think we're quite there yet. We have to get where we have rising job growth of about 100,000 a month before the unemployment rate levels off, and we think that would be in the the first quarter," he said.

Stocks ran up ahead of the much anticipated Friday number, driving the Dow above 10,000 once again. The rally was fanned by better economic data and Cisco's strong earnings report. Non farm productivity surged to a 9.5 percent annual rate, and new weekly jobless claims were at 512,000, a 10-month low.

"They kind of floated it up on air," said Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS, of the stock market. "There were buy programs and nobody to stand in their way, and that's how you turned it up." Traders have been expecting volatility this week, but several said they were surprised the market moved higher Thursday.

The Dow jumped 2 percent, or 203 points to 10,005, while the S&P 500 rose 1.9 percent to 1066. At the same time, the dollar was mixed, as the dollar index rose but the greenback lost more ground against the euro. Commodities turned in a mixed performance.

"Equities guys are betting it (the jobs number) surprises to the upside, rather than the downside," said Boris Schlossberg of GFT Forex.

Besides the jobs report, wholesale trade is released at 10 a.m. and consumer credit is reported at 3 p.m. AIG reports earnings ahead of the bell, and Berkshire Hathaway reports after the close.  Starbucks late Thursday reported better than expected profits of $150 million, and its shares were moving higher.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

The jobs report has been a major focus for traders this week. The employment situation remains the most worrisome aspect of the recovery, and economists do not see the unemployment rate bouncing back any time soon. A headline number of 10 percent could spook the market, even though it is an expected outcome, they say.

Mesirow Financial Chief Economist Diane Swonk expects to see job losses of 200,000 and an unemployment rate of 9.9 percent. "Whether it is 9.9 percent, 9.8 or even 10, it's just noise at this point in time... My concern is the longer people are unemployed, the lower their chances of getting re-employed," she said.

Swonk believes the jobs recovery will be slow, and that unemployment will not return to a level of 6 percent until the end of 2013. "I hope I'm wrong," she said.

"The good news is the pace is abating and we are yet to see the turning point on hiring. I think we will see that before the end o f the year, but it will be muted," she said.

Swonk said the credit constraints on small business are a concern because that segment of the economy is responsible for 60 percent of employment.

Deutsche Bank chief U.S. economist Joseph LaVorgna said he expects Friday's numbers to show a decline of 175,000 in non farm payrolls. "The numbers will look pretty lousy," he said. But he is more upbeat on rehiring.

"The key thing is you've got massive productivity gains, which are unsustainable because companies have over cut their payrolls. So if you have an incremental increase in demand and improvement in the economy, that will give way, in our opinion, to some serious hiring," he said.

Swonk said one area that might show new signs of job losses is health care, which has been pretty much insulated so far. "We know the pressure on health care is pretty intense because people are shedding their health care as their overtime goes away. They're trying to preserve their disposable income by cutting back on insurance coverage," she said.
.........................

"A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. He does not treat men as masters or slaves, but as independent equals. He deals with men by means of a free, voluntary, unforced, uncoerced exchange—an exchange which benefits both parties by their own independent judgment. A trader does not expect to be paid for his defaults, only for his achievements. He does not switch to others the burden of his failures, and he does not mortgage his life into bondage to the failures of others." - Ayn Rand

Published: Friday, 6 Nov 2009 | 8:35 AM ET
By: Reuters for

U.S. employers cut a deeper-than-expected 190,000 jobs in October, government data showed on Friday, driving the unemployment rate to 10.2 percent, the highest in 26-1/2 years.

The Labor Department said the unemployment rate was the highest since April 1983 and October's non-farm payrolls loss was the smallest since August last year. It revised job losses for August and September to show 91,000 fewer jobs lost than previously reported.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected payrolls to drop by 175,000 and the jobless rate to edge up to 9.9 percent from 9.8 percent in September.

The labor market is being watched for signs whether the economic recovery that started in the third quarter can be sustained without government support. The economy grew at a 3.5 percent annualized rate in the July-September period, probably ending the most painful U.S. recession in 70 years.

Payrolls have declined for 22 consecutive months now, throwing 7.3 million people out of work since December 2007, when the recession started.

However, the pace of layoffs has slowed sharply from early this year, when nearly three-quarters of a million jobs were lost in January. In October, job losses were across almost all sectors, with education and health services and professional and business services bucking the trend.

Manufacturing employment fell 61,000 last month, while construction industries payrolls dropped 62,000.

The service-providing sector cut 61,000 workers in October and goods-producing industries slashed 129,000 positions.

Education and health services added 45,000 jobs, while government employment was flat.
.........................

"A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. He does not treat men as masters or slaves, but as independent equals. He deals with men by means of a free, voluntary, unforced, uncoerced exchange—an exchange which benefits both parties by their own independent judgment. A trader does not expect to be paid for his defaults, only for his achievements. He does not switch to others the burden of his failures, and he does not mortgage his life into bondage to the failures of others." - Ayn Rand

This was a pretty big NFP report...although it wasn't treated as such on Friday.

We've crossed the 10% number, which means there's like 18 million Americans without jobs.  That's double what it was just a year or so ago.

Strangely enough (albeit not surprising), the unemployment rate crossing that 10% threshold has been downplayed by just about every pundit covering the financial markets.  And at the end of the day--to make matters even worse for bears--the major indices closed higher, with the Dow back above 10,000.  What gives?

There are actually a number of factors, starting with the fact that no one really wants this 7-month show to end.

Nevertheless, here's the Breakdown of the October 2009 NFP report from the BLS website. .........................

"A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. He does not treat men as masters or slaves, but as independent equals. He deals with men by means of a free, voluntary, unforced, uncoerced exchange—an exchange which benefits both parties by their own independent judgment. A trader does not expect to be paid for his defaults, only for his achievements. He does not switch to others the burden of his failures, and he does not mortgage his life into bondage to the failures of others." - Ayn Rand

   
ANDREW WILKINSON for
Published 11/6/2009 

We’re not quite sure what all the fuss is about this morning when it comes to splicing and dicing the non-farm payrolls report. A 10.2% headline national rate of unemployment - the highest in 26 years grabbed attention upon the announcement and created a brief avalanche of currency selling in favor of the dollar by investors. And how wrong they were! The actual payroll decline of 190,000 might have been 15,000 more than analysts were primed for but it was only the second time since August 2008 that employers shed less than 200,000 jobs in a single month.


Click on link for updated table throughout the day at http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/general/education/FX-View.php?ib_entity=llc 

We really don’t think anything changed, in terms of likely consumption habits, on account of the fact that a double-digit rate unemployment rate has arrived. As traders realize the mistake they made by reaching for the sanctity of the dollar after the report, its fast losing any gains on the day and as we commence our report, the dollar is now lower at $1.4900 after rising to $1.4813 earlier in the day.

Let’s get this straight. October’s report revealed 15,000 more job losses than expected. So what? The revision to the September report saw a smaller change by 44,000 jobs as the earlier reported losses were contracted. On a net basis the number of jobs lost over these two months at the end of the summer was actually 29,000 less than was expected moments before the data. So any notion that the economy is having a second-round meltdown is well premature and investors fixated by the glaring headline 10.2% headline appear to be simply blinded by the light today. On the agenda next month it will be no surprise to see ongoing amelioration in the pace of job cuts and a downwards revision to today’s household survey number. That’ll do the trick of garnering a huge year end rally!


The pound regained its poise against the dollar and is now higher at $1.6593. Indeed the broad dollar index is now lower on the day as everything has turned around with one exception.


The Canadian employment report was admittedly ugly and it remains to be seen whether a loss to 93.61 U.S. cents can be undone today. We suspect that may be the case later in the day. The concern for the health of the Canadian economy came after employers shed 43,200 jobs rather than expanding positions by 10,000. Last month’s data shocked by adding workers and one could argue that on average, today’s report is a wash. But we won’t go that far and we have to once again raise the issue of whether currency strength is indeed constraining economic growth as the government and central bank suggests. 

The situation in Australia, that other commodity rich nation, continues to improve. A quarterly update from the Reserve Bank overnight shows substantially stronger economic growth compared to the report in August. The RBA raised its 2009 prediction of GDP growth from 0.5% to 1.75% and boosted its 2010 reading from 2.25% to 3.25%. As one might expect the Aussie has improved to 91.76 U.S. cents today.

Now that the sticker-shock is fading the U.S. markets might be setting up for a pretty positive day. The S&P 500 index future took a 12-point dive after the employment report and is now up on the day. We continue to expect the dollar to suffer at the hands of being the worst of the bunch, while we should also note the fact that gold futures exceeded $1,100 per ounce in the aftermath of today’s data.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Well, isn't this an interesting take on events.

This guy and I are diametrically opposed on this issue.  Nevertheless, he seems to have captured the sentiment of the overall market as most traders in the financial markets have all but ignored the jobs report and traded equities higher.  Amonst my peer group, we seem to think that this is the last stages of a distribution top, but such a topping pattern seems to be losing its steam with every single minute.

Right now the EUR/USD, is back trading to highs prior to the NFP report; gold is making an overnight high above $1100/oz and the US dollar looks to be retreating beyond pertinent 61.8% retracement levels. .........................

"A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. He does not treat men as masters or slaves, but as independent equals. He deals with men by means of a free, voluntary, unforced, uncoerced exchange—an exchange which benefits both parties by their own independent judgment. A trader does not expect to be paid for his defaults, only for his achievements. He does not switch to others the burden of his failures, and he does not mortgage his life into bondage to the failures of others." - Ayn Rand

US Employment Situation 2009
no. 12 of 12

Reporting Period: November 2009
Announcement Date: 4 December 2009
Announcement Time: 08:30 ET

Concensus Analyst Estimates/Actual Prior Reading (current | previous):

Non-Farm Payrolls: -120,000 | -190,000
Unemployment Rate: 10.2% | 10.2%
Manufacturing Payrolls: -48,000 | -61,000
Hourly Earnings: +0.2% | +0.3%
Avg. Weekly Work Hours: 33.1 | 33

Other Information:

Yearly Avg. NFP: +115,000 (2008)
3-mo. Avg. NFP : -222,667 (August, September, October) .........................

"A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. He does not treat men as masters or slaves, but as independent equals. He deals with men by means of a free, voluntary, unforced, uncoerced exchange—an exchange which benefits both parties by their own independent judgment. A trader does not expect to be paid for his defaults, only for his achievements. He does not switch to others the burden of his failures, and he does not mortgage his life into bondage to the failures of others." - Ayn Rand

|  Written by David Song, Currency Analyst for

U.S. non-farm payrolls are expected to contract 125K in November, which would be the smallest decline since March 2008, while the annual rate of employment is forecasted to hold at the 26-year high of 10.2%, and the data could stoke increased selling pressures on the dollar as investors weigh the prospects for a sustainable recovery.

Trading the News: Change in US Non-Farm Payrolls

What’s Expected

Time of release:        11/06/2009 13:30 GMT, 08:30 EST
Primary Pair Impact :    EURUSD
Expected:        -125K
Previous:        -190K

Impact the US NFP report had on EURUSD through the last 2 months



October 2009 Change In US Non-Farm Payrolls



U.S. non-farm payrolls slipped 190K in October amid expectations for a 175K decline, which pushed the annual rate of unemployment to 10.2%, which is the highest reading since 1983. The breakdown of the report showed the average workweek held at the record low for the second month, while the number of discouraged workers leaving the labor force increased to 5.7% from 5.5% in September, and the data foreshadows a dour outlook for private sector spending as households continue to face a weakening labor market paired with tightening credit conditions. Nevertheless, as the expansion in monetary and fiscal policy continues to feed through the real economy, policy makers anticipate the economy to emerge from the worst recession since the Great Depression however, the Fed is likely to hold the benchmark interest rate at the record-low going into the following year in order to encourage a sustainable recovery. 

September 2009 Change In US Non-Farm Payrolls



The U.S. labor market weakened more than expected in September as non-farm payrolls tumbled 263K from the previous month amid expectations for a 175K drop, and the data reinforces a dour outlook for private spending as households face tightening credit conditions paired with the slump in wage growth. As a result, the jobless rate rose to a 26-year high of 9.8% from 9.7% in August, and businesses may continue to scale back on employment throughout the second-half of the year as policy makers see a risk for a protracted recovery. At the same time, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke held a cautious outlook for the labor market and said that the extraordinary efforts taken on by the government may not be able enough to “substantially” bring down the jobless rate, and the slump in the labor market may continue to weigh on the outlook for future growth as private-sector spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy. 

What To Look For Before The Release

Traders with access to market depth information via the FXCM Active Trader Platform may use it to gauge the potency of the economic data release as well as to shed some light on the market’s directional bias. Increasing volume ahead of the announcement will telegraph likely follow-through behind whatever move is to materialize, while an imbalance in available liquidity on the Bid versus the Offer side of the market will tell us the direction major institutions are likely favoring ahead of the announcement:

Bullish Scenario:

If we see substantially deeper available liquidity on the Bid side of the market, this tells us that major price providers in the market are looking to buy the Euro against the US Dollar. Considering that close to 60% of all FX market volume is cleared through just six top banks, we see it prudent to be on the same side of the trade as major institutions and will favor a bullish bias on EURUSD ahead of the data release.



Bearish Scenario:

If we see substantially deeper available liquidity on the Offer side of the market, this tells us that major price providers in the market are looking to sell the Euro against the US Dollar. Considering that close to 60% of all FX market volume is cleared through just six top banks, we see it prudent to be on the same side of the trade as major institutions and will favor a bearish bias on EURUSD ahead of the data release.
 


How To Trade This Event Risk

U.S. non-farm payrolls are expected to contract 125K in November, which would be the smallest decline since March 2008, while the annual rate of employment is forecasted to hold at the 26-year high of 10.2%, and the data could stoke increased selling pressures on the dollar as investors weigh the prospects for a sustainable recovery. Nevertheless, as the greenback remains the most popular funding currency next to the Japanese Yen, a rise in risk aversion could drive the dollar higher as it continues to benefit from safe-haven flows. The preliminary GDP reading showed the growth rate expanded at an annual pace of 2.8% in the third quarter amid an initial forecast for a 3.5% rise, while personal consumption increased 2.9% versus expectations for a 3.2% clip, and a rise in unemployment is likely to spur a dour outlook for private spending as households continue to face fading demands for employment paired with tightening credit conditions. Moreover, the ADP labor report released earlier this week showed private payrolls slumped 169K in November to exceed expectations for a 150K drop, while the breakdown of the ISM manufacturing report reinforced a weakened outlook for the labor market as the employment component weakened to 50.8 from 53.1 in October. However, the Fed’s Beige Book noted that economic conditions have “improved modestly,” and went onto say that consumer spending “picked up modestly” across the 12 districts even as credit standards remained tight. In addition, consumer confidence unexpectedly increased in November, with the Conference Board’s index rising to 49.5 from 48.7 in the previous month, while retail spending jumped 1.4% in October to top forecasts for a 0.9% rise, and conditions are likely to improve going forward as the expansion in monetary and fiscal policy continues to support the real economy. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said that “significant economy challenges remain” as the recovery remains weak, with St. Louis Fed President James Bullard pushing for the central bank to extend its emergency programs beyond the March deadline in order to give “the Fed the option to react to future news,” and the board may continue to hold a dovish outlook for future policy as inflation expectations remain “stable.” As a result, market participants anticipate the Federal Reserve to hold the benchmark interest rate at the record-low throughout the first-half of the following year as policy makers see a risk for a protracted recovery, and may look to extend its emergency programs over the coming months in order to encourage a sustainable recovery.

Trading the given event risk favors a bearish outlook for the greenback as economists anticipate the labor market to weaken further however, price action following an enhanced employment report could set the stage for a long dollar trade. Therefore, if payrolls slump 100K or less in November, we will look for a red, five-minute candle following the release to establish a sell entry on two-lots of EUR/USD. Once these conditions are met, we will place the initial stop at the nearby swing high or a reasonable distance taking volatility into account, and this risk will establish our first target. Our second objective will be based on discretion, and we will move the stop on the second lot to breakeven once the first trade reaches its target in an effort to preserve our profits.

In contrast, tightening credit conditions paired with the slump in global trade may lead businesses to scale back on production and employment in order to reduce costs, and a drop in U.S. payrolls could weigh on the exchange rate as policy makers continue to see a risk for a protracted recovery. As a result, if NFP’s slump 125K or greater from the previous month, we will favor a bearish outlook for the greenback, and will implement the same strategy for a long euro-dollar trade as the short position laid out above, just in reverse.

.........................

"A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. He does not treat men as masters or slaves, but as independent equals. He deals with men by means of a free, voluntary, unforced, uncoerced exchange—an exchange which benefits both parties by their own independent judgment. A trader does not expect to be paid for his defaults, only for his achievements. He does not switch to others the burden of his failures, and he does not mortgage his life into bondage to the failures of others." - Ayn Rand

Friday, 4 Dec 2009 | 8:52 AM ET

U.S. employers cut a far fewer-than-expected 11,000 jobs in November, the smallest decline since the start of the recession in December 2007, government data showed on Friday, strongly suggesting the deterioration in the labor market was in its final stages.

The Labor Department said the unemployment rate fell to 10 percent from a 26-1/2 year high of 10.2 percent in October.

The government revised job losses for September and October to show 159,000 fewer jobs lost than previously reported.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected non-farm payrolls to drop 130,000 last month and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 10.2 percent.

The data will take some pressure off President Barack Obama, a day after he appealed to the corporate sector, at a jobs summit he hosted, to join in the administration's employment creation efforts.

While the economy has resumed growth after four straight quarters of decline, there are concerns that labor market weakness will prevent the recovery from becoming self-sustaining.

Government spending is largely driving the economy's recovery from the worst recession in 70 years. Since December 2007, when the economy slipped into recession, 7.2 million jobs have been lost, the Labor Department said.

But the pace of layoffs has slowed sharply from early this year.

Analysts believe the bruised job market may be close to turning the corner, with jobs growth likely early next year.

November's data was the strongest since December 2007, when jobs increased by 120,000. Payrolls have fallen every month since then.

The improvement in the labor market last month was broad based, with four sectors, including the government, adding jobs.

Manufacturing payrolls fell 41,000 after dropping 51,000 in October. The construction sector shed 27,000 jobs, while the service-providing sector added 58,000 workers.

Professional and business services added 86,000, while education and health services increased payrolls by 40,000. Temporary help employment rose by 52,400. .........................
Nemo liber est qui corpori servit. 
-- Seneca the Younger, Epistoloe Ad Lucilium (XCII)

And yet the market has swing NEGATIVE as we head into the lunch hour.  It's absolutely amazing to me that the NFP was soooooo off from estimates.  The consensus was -120,000 jobs for November...only 109,000 off the actual.  I was honestly expecting many more jobs lost...close to -200,000 honestly.

But ultimately what this implies is that the carry trade may be done.  Now that might not make immediate sense as to why it's important to the market overall but bear with me.

With the U.S. dollar in the pits and the Federal benchmark at all-time lows (0.25%), the U.S. dollar represents a perfect tool for investors, traders, speculators and the entire capital market community to buy EVERYTHING at a low carry cost.  That means that investment firms can borrow U.S. dollars to buy all other "risk" assets...that's what all the talk about the risk trade pertains to.  The rationale behind using the dollar as the base borrowing is simple:  it's based upon a VERY stable economy with great financial stability and flexibility and not to mention military power to match (just in case something happens).  Add this to the fact that there's only one currency that's cheaper to borrow (the Japanese yen) and the stage is set for the carry-trade rebound cycle of the year.  And yeah, it just happened.

But now that the U.S. economy seems to be improving AND the labor market seems to have hit it's lowest level, it looks like the U.S. is poised to come out of this great recession, well ahead of its Asian and European counterparts.  This means that the U.S. Fed may be able to turn off the liqudity hydrant that's been running for some time now and actually start hiking interest rates.  This firms up the economy and staves off inflation.  But it also makes it more expensive to borrow U.S. dollars to finance investment activities.  And that's a problem in the current environment for the capital community.

So with the year-end clearly in sight, a GRAND year for equities and commodities such as gold and oil...I think we're at least going to see a correction from profit-taking and squaring out of positions since March.  However, I think we'll also see a new insurgence of positions going the opposite way to prepare to make a different kind of gains in the coming year.  If the US Dollar carry trade is off, it's "on" somewhere else... .........................

"A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. He does not treat men as masters or slaves, but as independent equals. He deals with men by means of a free, voluntary, unforced, uncoerced exchange—an exchange which benefits both parties by their own independent judgment. A trader does not expect to be paid for his defaults, only for his achievements. He does not switch to others the burden of his failures, and he does not mortgage his life into bondage to the failures of others." - Ayn Rand

US Employment Situation 2010
no. 1 of 12

Reporting Period: December 2009
Announcement Date: 8 January 2010
Announcement Time: 08:30 ET

Concensus Analyst Estimates/Actual Prior Reading (current | previous):

Non-Farm Payrolls: -120,000 | -11,000
Unemployment Rate: 9.9% | 10.0%
Manufacturing Payrolls: -48,000 | -61,000
Hourly Earnings: +0.2% | +0.3%
Avg. Weekly Work Hours: 33.1 | 33

Other Information:

Yearly Avg. NFP: +115,000 (2008)
3-mo. Avg. NFP : -222,667 (September, October, November) .........................

"A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. He does not treat men as masters or slaves, but as independent equals. He deals with men by means of a free, voluntary, unforced, uncoerced exchange—an exchange which benefits both parties by their own independent judgment. A trader does not expect to be paid for his defaults, only for his achievements. He does not switch to others the burden of his failures, and he does not mortgage his life into bondage to the failures of others." - Ayn Rand

By: Cadie Thompson
Special to CNBC.com
Published: Tuesday, 29 Dec 2009 | 6:06 PM ET

Expect to see job growth in the Jan. 8 jobs report and say goodbye to 10 percent unemployment in the New Year, John Herrmann, president of Herrmann Forecasting, told CNBC Tuesday.

Despite some economists' speculation unemployment will linger at 10 percent or even dramatically increase in 2010, Herrmann said his models do not reflect the pessimistic prediction.

“No way,” said Herrmann. “I think they are totally completely wrong; models do not bear this out. Our models were saying we were going to grow jobs before the Jan 8 report that we get that next week, and we are absolutely tracking that.”

Unemployment rates peaked at 10.2 percent in October and will dip to 9.9 percent in the next jobs report, Herrmann said. His firm forecasts the U.S. adding 70,000 jobs, he said.

Richard Hoey, Chief Economist for BNY Mellon, said he shares Herrmann’s optimism regarding employment, but is more cautious about when the unemployment rate will scale back from 10 percent.

“I have a little bit more caution about the next couple of months, I think it may take a while to emerge," said Hoey. "But, the strength in the economy is real, this is a sustained economic expansion.”

Both economists said they see hiring growing strongly next summer.

According to a report by Careerbuilder.com, 20 percent of employers plan to hire full time employees again in 2010, up from 14 percent a year ago.

The surge in hiring is a result of large-cap companies cutting jobs too heavily in late 2008 and early 2009, Herrmann said.

Once the larger companies start rehiring in 2010, midsize and smaller companies will follow, he said.

Hoey said he also thinks there will be an easing in the credit market, allowing for smaller companies to begin rehiring. While companies may of made cuts appropriate to last year’s economic climate, this year is a time for expansion, he added.

“Over and over again we have seen the pessimists and skeptics about the economy coming up with new reasons with why it can’t expand,” said Hoey. “And what I see is a world where there were tremendous fears in the corporate sector of a much worse economic outcome than the one that we’re actually going to get.” .........................

"A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. He does not treat men as masters or slaves, but as independent equals. He deals with men by means of a free, voluntary, unforced, uncoerced exchange—an exchange which benefits both parties by their own independent judgment. A trader does not expect to be paid for his defaults, only for his achievements. He does not switch to others the burden of his failures, and he does not mortgage his life into bondage to the failures of others." - Ayn Rand

Heading into tomorrow's NFP--which is expected to be the first positive payroll report in a year--I thought the BLS breakdown of last month's reading (for November 2009) was oddly appropriate.

Note how healthcare and temp jobs seems to be working up the numbers into positive territory.  And while the short-term effects of whatever logic can be extracted from the excerpt below will be muted in the markets, one has to think that the long term implications still have to be accounted for at some point.

By the way, this was my attempt at some fundamental analysis.  For a more technical spin on things, check this out.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- NOVEMBER 2009

The unemployment rate edged down to 10.0 percent in November, and nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-11,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. In the prior 3 months, payroll job losses had averaged 135,000 a month. In November, employment fell in construction, manufacturing, and information, while temporary help services and health care added jobs.

Household Survey Data

In November, both the number of unemployed persons, at 15.4 million, and the unemployment rate, at 10.0 percent, edged down. At the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons was 7.5 million, and the jobless rate was 4.9 percent. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, unemployment rates for adult men (10.5 percent), adult women (7.9 percent), teenagers (26.7 percent), whites (9.3 percent), blacks (15.6 percent), and Hispanics (12.7 percent) showed little change in November. The unemployment rate for Asians was 7.3 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs fell by 463,000 in November. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) rose by 293,000 to 5.9 million. The percentage of unemployed persons jobless for 27 weeks or more increased by 2.7 percentage points to 38.3 percent. (See tables A-8 and A-9.)

The civilian labor force participation rate was little changed in November at 65.0 percent. The employment-population ratio was unchanged at 58.5 percent.  (See table A-1.)

The number of people working part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed in November at 9.2 million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-5.)

About 2.3 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in November, an increase of 376,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-13.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 861,000 discouraged workers in November, up from 608,000 a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.5 million persons marginally attached to the labor force had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in November (-11,000). Job losses in the construction, manufacturing, and information industries were offset by job gains in temporary help services and healthcare. Since the recession began, payroll employment has decreased by 7.2 million. (See table B-1.)

Construction employment declined by 27,000 over the month. Job losses had averaged 117,000 per month during the 6 months ending in April and 63,000 per month from May through October. In November, construction job losses were concentrated among nonresidential specialty trade contractors (-29,000).

Manufacturing employment fell by 41,000 in November. The average monthly decline for the past 5 months (-46,000) was much lower than the average monthly job loss for the first half of this year (-171,000). About 2.1 million manufacturing jobs have been lost since December 2007; the majority of this decline has occurred in durable goods manufacturing (-1.6 million).

Employment in the information industry fell by 17,000 in November. About half of the job loss occurred in its telecommunications component (-9,000).

There was little change in wholesale and retail trade employment in November.  Within retail trade, department stores added 8,000 jobs over the month.

The number of jobs in transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and leisure and hospitality showed little change over the month.

Employment in professional and business services rose by 86,000 in November.  Temporary help services accounted for the majority of the increase, adding
52,000 jobs. Since July, temporary help services employment has risen by 117,000.

Health care employment continued to rise in November (21,000), with notable gains in home health care services (7,000) and hospitals (7,000). The health care industry has added 613,000 jobs since the recession began in December 2007.

In November, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 0.2 hour to 33.2 hours. The manufacturing workweek increased by 0.3 hour to 40.4 hours. Factory overtime rose by 0.1 hour to 3.4 hours. Since May, the manufacturing workweek has increased by 1.0 hour. (See table B-2.)

In November, average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 1 cent, or 0.1 percent, to $18.74.  Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.2 percent, while average weekly earnings have risen by 1.6 percent. (See table B-3.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from -219,000 to -139,000, and the change for October was revised from -190,000 to -111,000. .........................

"A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. He does not treat men as masters or slaves, but as independent equals. He deals with men by means of a free, voluntary, unforced, uncoerced exchange—an exchange which benefits both parties by their own independent judgment. A trader does not expect to be paid for his defaults, only for his achievements. He does not switch to others the burden of his failures, and he does not mortgage his life into bondage to the failures of others." - Ayn Rand

US Employment Situation 2010
no. 2 of 12

Reporting Period: January 2010
Announcement Date: 5 February 2010
Announcement Time: 08:30 ET

Concensus Analyst Estimates/Actual Prior Reading (current | previous):

Non-Farm Payrolls: +15,000 | -85,000
Unemployment Rate: 10.0% | 10.0%
Manufacturing Payrolls: -20,000 | -27,000
Hourly Earnings: +0.2% | +0.2%
Avg. Weekly Work Hours: 33.1 | 33

Other Information:

Yearly Avg. NFP: +115,000 (2008)
3-mo. Avg. NFP : -118,667 (October, November, December) .........................

"A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. He does not treat men as masters or slaves, but as independent equals. He deals with men by means of a free, voluntary, unforced, uncoerced exchange—an exchange which benefits both parties by their own independent judgment. A trader does not expect to be paid for his defaults, only for his achievements. He does not switch to others the burden of his failures, and he does not mortgage his life into bondage to the failures of others." - Ayn Rand

We'll fill this back in. .........................

"A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. He does not treat men as masters or slaves, but as independent equals. He deals with men by means of a free, voluntary, unforced, uncoerced exchange—an exchange which benefits both parties by their own independent judgment. A trader does not expect to be paid for his defaults, only for his achievements. He does not switch to others the burden of his failures, and he does not mortgage his life into bondage to the failures of others." - Ayn Rand

US Employment Situation 2010
no. 3 of 12

Reporting Period: February 2010
Announcement Date: 5 March 2010
Announcement Time: 08:30 ET

Concensus Analyst Estimates/Actual Prior Reading (current | previous):

Non-Farm Payrolls: -60,000 | -20,000
Unemployment Rate: 9.7% | 9.7%
Manufacturing Payrolls: -20,000 | 11,000
Hourly Earnings: +0.2% | +0.2%
Avg. Weekly Work Hours: 33.7 | 33.9

Other Information:

Yearly Avg. NFP: -315,000 (2009)
3-mo. Avg. NFP : -78,333 (November, December, January) .........................

"A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. He does not treat men as masters or slaves, but as independent equals. He deals with men by means of a free, voluntary, unforced, uncoerced exchange—an exchange which benefits both parties by their own independent judgment. A trader does not expect to be paid for his defaults, only for his achievements. He does not switch to others the burden of his failures, and he does not mortgage his life into bondage to the failures of others." - Ayn Rand

By Rex Nutting for
March 5, 2010, 8:30 a.m. EST

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. nonfarm payrolls declined for the 25th time in the past 26 months, falling by 36,000 in February to 129.5 million, the Labor Department estimated Friday. Job losses were concentrated in construction, schools, retail and publishing. Manufacturing jobs rose by 1,000, the second increase in a row. The unemployment rate was steady at 9.7%. Severe snow storms during the survey week may have depressed the payroll count, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics said it could not quantify the impact. Total hours worked fell by 0.6%, likely due to weather-related shutdowns. The employment report was better than expected, as economists surveyed by MarketWatch were forecasting a drop of 90,000. They expected the unemployment rate to rise to 9.8%. .........................

"A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. He does not treat men as masters or slaves, but as independent equals. He deals with men by means of a free, voluntary, unforced, uncoerced exchange—an exchange which benefits both parties by their own independent judgment. A trader does not expect to be paid for his defaults, only for his achievements. He does not switch to others the burden of his failures, and he does not mortgage his life into bondage to the failures of others." - Ayn Rand

US Employment Situation 2010
no. 4 of 12

Reporting Period: March 2010
Announcement Date: 2 April 2010
Announcement Time: 08:30 ET

Concensus Analyst Estimates/Actual Prior Reading (current | previous):

Non-Farm Payrolls: 184,000 | -36,000
Unemployment Rate: 9.7% | 9.7%
Manufacturing Payrolls: 14,000 | 1,000
Hourly Earnings: +0.1% | +0.2%
Avg. Weekly Work Hours: 33.7 | 33.9

Other Information:

Yearly Avg. NFP: -315,000 (2009)
3-mo. Avg. NFP : -23,333 (December, January, February) .........................

"A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. He does not treat men as masters or slaves, but as independent equals. He deals with men by means of a free, voluntary, unforced, uncoerced exchange—an exchange which benefits both parties by their own independent judgment. A trader does not expect to be paid for his defaults, only for his achievements. He does not switch to others the burden of his failures, and he does not mortgage his life into bondage to the failures of others." - Ayn Rand

By Rex Nutting, for
April 2, 2010, 8:56 a.m. EDT

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Boosted by hiring for the Census and a rebound from bad weather, the U.S. economy created 162,000 jobs in March, the largest seasonally adjusted increase in nonfarm payrolls in three years, the Labor Department reported Friday.


Nonfarm payrolls rose for just the third time in the past 27 months, aided by the hiring of 48,000 temporary workers to conduct the Census. Excluding the Census workers, payrolls rose by 114,000. Read the full report on the Bureau of Labor Statistics website.

The unemployment rate was steady at 9.7%, with the labor force rising by 398,000.

The report was largely in line with expectations. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were forecasting a 200,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls, with about half of those coming from temporary hires at the Census Bureau. Economists expected the unemployment rate to remain at 9.7%. See our complete economic calendar and consensus forecast.

Ahead of the report, economists cautioned against reading too much into it, in light of the temporary hiring by the Census and the likely rebound from two massive snowstorms during the survey week in February.

The March report "doesn't tell you much about sustainability," said Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist for Mizuho Securities USA.

The report was mixed, said Tom Porcelli, an economist for RBC Capital Markets. "No need to celebrate at all." He expects modest job gains in coming months.

A year ago, payrolls were falling by an average of more than 700,000 per month. Since the recession began in December 2007, 8.2 million jobs have been lost.

Broad-based hiring

Payroll gains were broad based, with 60% of all industries adding workers in March.

Goods-producing industries' payrolls rose by 41,000, the first increase since March 2007. Manufacturing payrolls increased by 17,000, with 58.5% of manufacturing industries hiring. Manufacturing hours increased by half an hour to 41 hours per week, with 3.7 hours of overtime on average.

Construction employment rose by 15,000, likely a rebound from unseasonably bad weather in February.

Service-producing industries added 121,000, including 39,000 in government.

The average workweek increased by two-tenths of an hour to 33.3 hours. Total hours worked rose by 0.7%, reversing the storm-related 0.6% decline in February.

Average hourly earnings fell by 2 cents, or 0.1%, to $18.90. It was the first decline on record, dating to 2006.

Long-term unemployment worsened in March. Of the 15 million people officially classified as unemployed, a record 6.5 million, or 44.1%, had been out of work longer than six months.

The U6 alternative gauge of the unemployment rate, which includes discouraged workers and those forced to work part-time, rose to 16.9% from 16.8%.

Drilling down

According to a survey of 400,000 business establishments, private-service producing industries added 121,000 jobs. Temporary-help jobs, a sign of future hiring, rose by 40,000 in March, pushing the total increase in this category to more than 300,000 since September.

Health care added 27,000 jobs. Retail added 15,000 jobs. Financial industries cut 21,000 jobs.

According to the survey of 60,000 households, employment rose by 264,000 to 138.9 million, keeping pace with the 398,000 increase in the labor force. The participation rate rose a tenth to 64.9%. Unemployment rose by 134,000 to stand at 15 million.

The number of people working on a part-time basis because of the slack economy rose to 9.1 million. One million workers were counted as discouraged workers.

Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch. .........................

"A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. He does not treat men as masters or slaves, but as independent equals. He deals with men by means of a free, voluntary, unforced, uncoerced exchange—an exchange which benefits both parties by their own independent judgment. A trader does not expect to be paid for his defaults, only for his achievements. He does not switch to others the burden of his failures, and he does not mortgage his life into bondage to the failures of others." - Ayn Rand